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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to energize a Labour conference and to show the party was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "We are not excluding remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

In that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Shift in Position & Closed Debates

Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that forbade rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite polling evidence suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. While EU relations may not be the central crisis in UK politics, the cap that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified their language regarding the damage that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.

And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing young people can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

While the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. One idea involves announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Scepticism

However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again by warning rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he views as signature achievements of his government.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement has been made much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has led British officials that European nations have little interest in cutting special deals with Britain than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for the UK to keep its distance from the EU.

An Alarming Document and Geopolitical Considerations

This strange and concerning document claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It contains only one reference of the UK, placed beside a proposal that the US government may interfere in our politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from deciding that this makes the US an undependable ally, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter & The Echo of 2018

All of which brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but simply an effort to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would stand for the leadership, is among a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Danger and A Prudent Reminder

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise for Starmer to remember the impact that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them personally, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.