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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."